Climate mitigation sustains agricultural research and development expenditure returns for maize yield improvement in developing countries

Abstract Governmental expenditure on agricultural research and development (R&D) has played a substantial role in increasing crop yields recent decades. However, studies suggest that annual yield growth rates would decline warming climate compared to non-warming climate. Here, we present how projected could alter maize gain owing US$ 1 billion increase R&D (referred as response) for 71 maize-producing countries using global gridded model simulations with socioeconomic scenarios inputs. For the middle of this century (2041–2060) under low scenario (shared pathways: SSP126), median response between is estimated be highest at 27.2% low-income group, followed by 6.6% lower-middle-income 1.0% high-income 0.1% upper-middle-income group. The lower (the low- lower-middle)-income groups high (SSP585) was approximately half than scenario: → 15.6% low-income, 1.7% lower-middle-income, 0.6% groups. where there limited room adopting high-yielding technology management already being used higher high- higher-middle)-income groups, negative impacts change cannot offset are decline, even continued investments (0.1% –0.2%). Even if expenditures same value, expected gains will depend future levels. This finding suggests mitigation prerequisite maintaining returns from developing countries.